Author: inboks
Housing start data remained strong in 2025 and early 2026, even as condo sales hit record lows and project cancellations surged, raising questions about how accurately the metric reflects current conditions. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported a 5.6% increase in housing starts in 2025, totalling about 260,000 units. Housing starts also increased 4.5% in February this year after slipping 15% in January. Last year, however, also marked the worst year for the GTHA’s new condo market since 1991, with sales plunging 95% from their 2021 peak and prompting the cancellation of 7,243 new condo units. Mike Moffatt,…
American agreements to buy existing-home sales improved better-than-expected, but still trended lower. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) made a small improvement in May. However, pending home sales, a leading indicator of future home sales, is way below last year. NAR expects this trend to continue, forecasting existing-home sales will slide through 2023. Pending Home Sales Are Better Than Expected, But Still Falling Pending home sales are agreements to purchase a home that have yet to close. They’re considered a future indicator of buying activity, since it’s an early gauge. The PHSI climbed 0.7% in…
It’s the credit, stupid. That’s basically the conclusion from a US Federal Reserve Board staff paper. The paper, Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?, examined price levers. It paid special attention to the recent home price surge during the pandemic. The ultimate conclusion is stimulated demand was responsible for the surge, not a lack of supply. They join increasing amounts of central bank research at odds with political narratives around costs. Demand Was Responsible For Most Price Gains Over The Past Two Decades The researchers looked at short-run fluctuations in home sales and prices. Modeling various environments,…
US real estate isn’t exactly slow, but it’s a big change from last year’s market. National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing-home data shows sales fell again in June. It was the fifth consecutive month to see a drop, while inventory continued to rise. The market is still tight, but showing its first sign of weakness — home prices in the West have begun to fall. US Existing-Home Sales Fell For A Fifth Consecutive Month, Down 14% US existing-home sales slipped again last month. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of homes fell to 5.12 million in June, down 5.4% from…
Canada’s national statistics agency quietly dropped a Christmas gift for analysts this morning. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows household debt-to-income (DTI) climbed sharply in Q3—but the real insight was a bonus DTI normalized for US comparison. The agency notes that American households saw their ratio peak in 2007, while Canadians kept piling on debt until the ratio peaked in 2022. Both countries peaked just after home prices hit record highs, followed by a sharp correction and broad deleveraging. Debt-To-Income Ratio Before we dive into the data, let’s quickly make sure we’re all on the same page—no data nerd left behind.…
Greater Vancouver real estate might be ready to wake from its slumber. Greater Vancouver Realtors, the board formerly known as REBGV, data shows the price of a typical home halted declines in November. Despite a 5-figure monthly decline just a few weeks prior, a sudden surge of sales helped to boost buyer sentiment. That sentiment was kept in check with an unseasonably high turnout of sellers. Did Vancouver Real Estate Prices Find A Bottom? The price of a composite benchmark (typical) home across Greater Vancouver. Source: Greater Vancouver Realtors; Better Dwelling. Greater Vancouver real estate prices may have just found…
Vancouver real estate sales picked up last month, but lofty inventory is easing market pressures. Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR), formerly REBGV, data shows the price of a composite benchmark (typical) home fell slightly in December. The minor decline emphasized uncertainty about where prices should head, remaining mostly unchanged from last year. Despite sales seeing enormous annual growth, the volume remains historically weak. At the same time, inventory is still high and taming price growth from increased demand and cheaper credit. Vancouver Real Estate Prices Nearly Unchanged For 3-Months The price of a typical home across Greater Vancouver. Source: GVR; CREA;…
Greater Vancouver real estate only has a handful of buyers, but they’re bidding up prices for some reason. Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR), formerly REBGV, shows home prices made a substantial jump in March. The increase occurred despite it being one of the weakest months for demand in decades, and the most well-supplied market in recent history. Greater Vancouver Real Estate Prices Jump Despite Weak Sales The composite benchmark price of a home in Greater Vancouver. Source: CREA; GVR; Better Dwelling. Greater Vancouver composite home prices made a 5-digit jump last month. The benchmark price of a typical home rose 0.5%…
Greater Vancouver real estate went from some of the world’s most coveted to historically weak demand in just a few years. REBGV data shows prices fell in June, as demand fell to the second weakest level in the past 25 years. At the same time, the region’s notoriously scarce inventory is no more—there are now the most listings since the Bank of Canada (BoC) suggested it was a bubble. Greater Vancouver Real Estate Prices Fell But Remain Lofty Greater Vancouver real estate prices: composite benchmark. Source: REBGV; CREA; Better Dwelling. Greater Vancouver real estate prices slipped lower last month. The…
Vancouver real estate prices have been resilient, but they may have just run out of luck. Data from Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR), formerly the REBGV, shows prices made a sharp drop in October. A market known for scarce inventory has seen a sudden influx of listings amid weak sales, pushing inventory to one of the highest levels for the month on record. Vancouver Real Estate Prices Running Out Of Luck? Recent Slump Sends Prices Back To 2023 Greater Vancouver Real Estate Prices: Composite. Source: GVR; CREA; Better Dwelling. Greater Vancouver real estate prices finally got a visit from gravity, posting…